Strategic Interactions of Monetary Policymakers and Wage/Price Bargainers: A Review with Implications for the European Common-Currency Area
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چکیده
This paper reviews recent work on macroeconomic management with varying organization of wage/price bargaining and degrees of credible monetary conservatism. The emerging literature synthesizes and extends theory and empirics on central bank independence (CBI) and coordinated wage/price bargaining (CWB), arguing that the degrees of CBI and CWB interact with each other and with other political-economic conditions (sectoral composition, international exposure, etc.) to structure the incentives facing actors involved in monetary policy and wage/price bargaining. The core implication, theoretically surprising but empirically supported, is that even perfectly credible monetary conservatism has long-run, equilibrium, onaverage real effects, even with fully rational expectations, and that these effects depend on the organization of wage/price bargaining. Conversely, wage/price-bargaining structure has real effects that depend on the degree of credible conservatism reflected in monetary-policy rules. Each also has interactive nominal effects though this is less surprising. Some disagreement remains over the precise nature of these interactive effects, but all emerging theory and evidence agree that a common, credibly conservative European monetary policy has nominal and real effects that depend on the Europe-wide institutional-structural organization of wage/price bargaining. Indeed, the one specific piece of theoretical and empirical agreement suggests that, for many member countries, the nominal gains from monetary-policy delegation to a credibly conservative European Central Bank will worsen these bargaining-policy interactions.
منابع مشابه
Chapter X STRATEGIC INTERACTIONS OF THE ECB, WAGE BARGAINERS, AND GOVERNMENTS A Review of Theory, Evidence, and Recent Experience
Recent studies of macroeconomic management under varying organization of wage/price bargaining and varying degrees of credible monetary conservatism synthesize and extend theory and empirics on central bank independence (CBI) and coordinated wage/price bargaining (CWB). These studies find that the degrees of CBI and CWB interact with each other and with the broader political-economic context (i...
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Abstract: This chapter reviews recent work on political-economic management of monetary policy under varying institutional organization of labor/goods markets and varying degrees of credible conservatism in monetary policy. The emerging literature synthesizes and extends theoretical and empirical insights of previous work on central bank independence (CBI) and coordinated wage/price bargaining ...
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تاریخ انتشار 2002